The USD may gain additional support. Overview for 11.10.2018

The major currency pair is still very sensitive to all news related to global “trade wars”.

This week, EURUSD fell up to 1.1431, the low it reached on August 20^th, but managed to recover later. The USD has been pretty aggressive this autumn: such behavior is influenced by new external risks and the quick growth of the American bonds profitability. However, there is one more global issue, which was temporarily put on the back burner, but can’t be considered irrelevant.

“Trade wars” may move to a brand new level in the nearest future. This week, the US President Donald Trump said that the USA might consider new import duties against China. As always, the American leader’s language was quite violent, as he stated that “China steals 500 billion Dollars from the USA every year”.  At the same time, Trump said that he was in favor of cooperation and good trade relations with China, but the USA couldn’t afford being so much vulnerable.

Even now, one can clearly see that “trade wars” have already affected the Chinese export and the statistics to be published in the nearest future are likely to confirm this. Currently, the Export is expected to be 8.9% y/y in September after being 9.8% y/y in August. In addition to that, there is a possibility of decline in the Industrial Production after 15 months of stable growth.

The latest “trade wars” moves were made by the USA and China on September 24^th. It hasn’t been long since then so that one could really assess the impact, but it’s quite obvious that the next step will be made by Washington.