The Euro continues growing. Overview for 31.03.2022

EURUSD is keeping its positive momentum; investors are interested in risks.

The major currency pair is strengthening after a rebound. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1163.

The risk attitude is slowly recovering, making the “greenback” sell attractive as a “safe haven” asset.

The US data published yesterday was quite interesting and surprising, to say the least. The final GDP report for the fourth quarter of 2021 showed 6.9% q/q against the expected reading of 7.1% q/q. 

The components of the report showed that the personal consumption expenditures added 6.4% q/q against the expected growth of 6.3% q/q. The price index expanded by 7.1% q/q (forecast – 7.2% q/q).

What does it all mean? First of all, the impulse in the US economy didn’t go anywhere, although it’s not as strong as expected. The fun fact is that the last estimate usually is the best but this time the tradition was broken down. Secondly, the strong Q4 2021 data makes the Q1 2022 forecasts even better and more confident. There might be some slowdown in March but January and February numbers should be fine. 

It’s good news for global forecasts and a confirmation of the US Fed’s strategy. 

The US also started reporting on its labour market. For example, the ADP Employment Change showed 455K in March against the expected reading of 450K. There is no direct correlation between reports from ADP and NFP, but the former still provides a general impression of what is going on in the labour market.